February 27, 2020

Dr. Frank’s paper: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2019.00223/full
Scenario #4 Video: https://youtu.be/bl4cQKKudjM

Need a good analogy?

Imagine you sell widgets, and you want to sell more widgets. Lets say you come up with a plan you think can raise sales by 10%. Sounds great! A margin of error of 1% is no big deal. A margin of error of 25%, meaning that this move might even lose sales, would mean that your best guess of 10% growth means absolutely nothing. That’s what happened in climate science, they say that their margin of error is 150% larger than the entire greenhouse gas forcing added by humans sine 1900.

Imagine you predict earthquakes… calling out a specific city with a 100 mile zone of danger is VERY specific. Doing so with a 2000 mile zone of danger that includes a large chunk of the ring of fire might not mean so much even if your prediction comes true.

Imagine you are the weatherman and your model shows severe weather three days ahead. If your model has an uncertainty of 4 hrs you have a solid model, if it has a 2-day uncertainty this is a useless model forecast.


Showing 2 comments
  • Terese Nehrbauer

    Another helpful amplification of Dr. Frank’s paper for us laypersons— what a powerful paper Dr. Frank!— and constructive guidance from you, Ben. Thank You for your diligence with intelligence. It’s making a real difference in the Field.

  • TurboSol

    Wow, why isn’t anyone talking about the error margin? That’s so huge it makes it almost meaningless to even predict the climate with.

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