August 26, 2018

Deeper Look – Episode 65 (2018)

BASED ON CURRENT SPF: Max. Monthly SSN ~100. Likely range; 90 – 140.

There is little chance for a cycle much weaker than this forecast. The solar polar fields (SPF) are already strong enough to call for a similar cycle, and there are a few years of room for stronger SPF, which would push the forecast towards the higher end of the stated range. Please allow for an update to this cycle due approximately every 6-12 months. The SPF will tell us what’s going to happen!

Upton’s Forecast

Showing 5 comments
  • Caroline5765

    After looking at a number of scientific predictions on the time frames of minimum this one makes good sense. I think we have some time left, unless we get a weather changing VEI or something else major that interferes. Either way we are headed that way. Thank you for the upload.

  • RebeccasArt

    Wow, eyes open, no fear as we keep watchful on what the GSM has coming in length and strength of cooling. I really appreciate you, and this information.

  • RebeccasArt

    Yes already into it…

  • Mtn Wanderer

    Personally, I no longer pay attention to a forecast Hathaway is part of. Why?

    Since these tend to use models and theories developed by Hathaway, go back and look at the Wilson / Hathaway 2006 predictions for 24. At that time, they predicted SC24 to be one of the strongest ever recorded! When they made the prediction we were on about the same part of the cycle in 23 as we are in 24 right now.

    Here’s a quote:
    “According to their analysis, the next Solar Maximum should peak around 2010 with a sunspot number of 160 plus or minus 25. This would make It one of the strongest solar cycles of the past fifty years—which is to say, one of the strongest in recorded history.” Another problem with there prediction was there were 2 peaks, neither one of which occurred in 2010, but rather in 2012 and 2014.

    They now have a revised forecast they call v2 they are using to claim they were really close to the actual numbers for SC24. Here’s the issue. the v2 prediction came out in ***2016***- AFTER the peaks. Of course it was within 5%.

    I know this because I have both predictions saved as pdfs on my computer
    More showing how far off base they were
    “Most compelling of all, believes Hathaway, is the work of Mausuml Dikpatl and colleagues at the National Center for Atmospheric Data Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. “They have combined observations of the sun’s ‘Great Conveyor Belt’ with a sophisticated computer model of the sun’s inner dynamo to produce a physics-based prediction of the next solar cycle.’ In short, it’s going to be intense.”

    As for already being into SC25. Don’t think so. The few sunspots are appearing at way to low of a latitude with no corresponding activity at high latitudes. This same thing happened from 2007-2009. Scientists would claim the new SC was starting, only to be wrong. In fact some people were claiming in 2007 SC24 was starting and last year that SC25 was starting because some sunspots occurred at similar latitudes in each hemisphere they are currently developing at. They were wrong then, and so far, appear to be wrong now.

  • Mtn Wanderer

    Forgot to mention that the prediction of 25 being 95% or more of 24 is something I’m skeptical of due to the previous track record

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