December 17, 2017
Deeper Look – Episode 97 (2017)
Here is the USGS search link: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search
We are looking for gaps in M4+ events at depths greater than 300km. Let’s see how well we can pull this off.
Showing 47 comments
Leave a Comment
This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.
Looking at 2016 now in Excel.
Here are the dates in 2016 without quakes of M4 or greater at a depth over 300km:
2/11/16
2/15
4/6
4/14
4/21
5/22
6/26
7/20
8/5
9/10
10/17
12/27
It’s very easy to see that there were not even 2 days back-to-back all year.
Signey, Thanks for the legwork. Great info!
X
Signey this is excellent work.
Looking at 2015. Is there a specific way you want info. on these, Ben?
The dates without M4+ below 300km in 2015:
1/3/15
2/1
2/15
3/6
3/25
4/6
4/17
4/22
5/9
6/20
8/17
8/29
9/16
10/3
10/16
11/7
Once again, 3 in April, but none back-to-back all year.
Let’s look at 2014!
M4+ greater than 300km deep:
1/16/14
2/25
3/4
4/2
4/11
4/24
6/23
6/26
6/27
8/28
9/3
Once again April stands out with 3 quiet days, but June actually has 2 days back-to-back for a change.
2013? Here we go.
Wow! 2013 had a lot of quiet days, up to 4 at a time.
M4+ 300km+
1/3/13
1/5
1/7
1/8
1/9
1/10
1/13
1/15
1/16
1/17
1/18
1/19
1/21
1/22
1/23
1/25
1/26
1/27
2/2
2/4
2/5
2/6
2/7
2/8
2/10
2/11
2/14
2/16
2/21
2/23
2/24
2/28
3/5
3/7
3/8
3/9
3/19
3/23
3/27
3/28
4/3
4/8
4/10
4/13
4/14
4/24
4/27
4/28
5/1
5/2
5/11
5/15
5/20
5/21
5/29
5/30
6/1
6/3
6/4
6/8
6/9
6/13
6/14
6/16
6/20
6/23
6/28
6/29
7/1
7/5
7/8
7/12
7/14
7/16
7/17
7/18
7/19
7/22
8/2
8/5
8/6
8/11
8/13
8/14
8/22
8/23
8/27
9/1
9/5
9/8
9/14
9/22
9/28
10/16
10/17
10/24
11/6
12/12
Looking at 2012, December is a bingo! More details to come.
Here’s the dates for 2012 M4+ 300km+ deep:
1/3/12
1/6
1/10
1/14
1/15
1/16
1/19
1/21
1/25
1/28
2/9
2/11
2/12
2/13
2/14
3/1
3/2
3/7
3/20
3/21
3/23
3/24
3/28
4/1
4/4
4/5
4/9
4/12
4/17
4/20
4/27
4/28
4/29
5/4
5/6
5/12
5/16
5/21
5/25
5/30
6/4
6/7
6/16
6/18
6/20
6/22
6/24
6/30
7/2
7/4
7/5
7/8
7/15
7/16
7/19
7/22
7/23
7/28
7/30
8/1
8/17
8/19
8/21
8/24
8/25
8/26
8/27
8/28
9/1
9/2
9/3
9/7
9/8
9/9
9/10
9/12
9/15
9/16
9/17
9/19
9/23
9/26
9/28
9/30
10/4
10/5
10/6
10/10
10/13
10/16
11/2
11/5
11/9
11/10
11/13
11/18
11/19
11/20
11/25
11/27
11/28
12/3
12/6
12/7
12/8
12/10
12/12
12/13
12/14
12/15
12/16
12/17
12/18
12/19
12/21
12/29
12/30
December 12-19th, all quiet. 4 days together in February, and 5 in August.
Wow. Signey has been very busy, very quickly. 😉
I went ahead and did 2011 year to see what it looks like. Created a CSV that loaded into Excel. Wow. Lots of info.
Right away, noticed 5 on same day (2011-02-10). This format makes it real easy to add a column with a calculation (“days from previous”). I got 364 hits in 2011.
Just for the heck of it, going to try 2010-01-01 to present, in one CSV to be able to generate gap data…
2010 to Present got 6488 hits. I’ll put the raw CSV file on my dropbox, and then the XLS file with additional column(s) there too. Will post the link here for people to download the file(s).
Here is the link to access the CSV file for 2010 to Present – https://www.dropbox.com/s/fwy2l572i85iyid/2010toPresent.csv?dl=0
Here is the XLS file, with 3 columns added, B=Just Date, C=dif, D=Quiet days prior
https://www.dropbox.com/s/5x71mlt315eq9gt/2010toPresent.xls?dl=0
During the past 8 years, the max quiet days were 9.
Out of the 8 years (~2915 days)
1 quiet day spans= 1949
2 quiet day spans= 244
3 quiet day spans= 74
4 quiet day spans= 28
5 quiet day spans= 11
6 quiet day spans= 7
7 quiet day spans= 3
8 quiet day spans= 1
9 quiet day spans= 1
I’m looking into adding a graph showing time (bottom axis) vs quiet day spans (left axis)….
(It will be in a couple hours, I’m watching Fort Snelling Memorial Chapel Service right now).
Wow, Dave! Awesome info. I have so much to learn with Excel, but I love patterns, so I was feeling like a junkie when I got started looking through the data. I have to run errands, but will be back later to look over everything. Thank you for your work on this too!
Just went and got 2000-2009 data in CSV format. Will also apply XLS columns & formulas to that data. Probably combine it with the 2010-Present data in XLS format. Now working on the graph for all the data.
Simply looking at two sets of times at the moment- solar minimum and solar maximum to see if this 7 day gap is indicative of the end of the solar cycle. Here is the observation I have so far I will post the links for my excel sheets for people to double check (I highlighted where I found 3 or day gaps):
Solar Max view from 11/01/2000-11/1/2002
29 x of 3 or more day+ gaps on solar max period
Anomalous week: 7/13 – 7/19/2001
5 day stretch (1/9/2001-1/14) followed up two near back to back 3day gaps at the end of the month
4 day stretch (happens 9x)
Solar Min View from 08/01/1995-08/01/98
17 x of 3 or more day + gaps on solar min period
Anomalous chain from August 6, 1995 – Aug13 th. Makes for back to back 3 day gaps during a 7 day period. Longest stretch is 4 days (happens 3x)
That’s where I was starting to go with this too, looking at 2003, 2002, to check solar max. I’m trying to take in lots of numbers and let them process subconsciously, but it forced me to power-down and take a nap! lol One thing that stands out is the relatively small number of quakes between 300km-400km. I’m going to have to go back to the more current data and see if it holds during all parts of the cycle. I wish that I was more up on this, but I’ve been focussed on biology, philosophy, and mythology. It’s kind of handy that they are all coming together at this moment in history.
Yes, your observation about the lack of quakes in that depth is just as interesting. Good work! Yes, I would also agree that an interdisciplinary approach is great to have in this citizen scientist community. Looking forward to what David Posh has with graphs.
The method of calculating depth or classifying data must have changed between the 2002/2003 data and 2015/2016. I’m looking at scatter plots for patterns and it looks like the numbers have gotten more random. I was right about the distribution. It is definitely heaviest in the 500-600km range. I always learn more of the basics when I finally challenge myself to go deeper into something.
Solar Min View
12/01/2007 – 12/31/2009
3 day or more gap occurrences: 50
Anomalous Weeks 2/12/2009 – 2/18/2009 (back to back 3 day gap)
2/24/2009-3/02/2009 (6 day gap followed up by 3 day gap)
3/28/2009-3/31-4/04/2009 (3day gap followed by 4day gap)
4/23/2009-4/27-4/30/2009 (4day gap followed by 3day gap)
5/29/2009-6/03/2009 (5day gap)
6/30/2009-7/04-7/07 (5day gap followed by 3 day gap)
7/19/2009 – 8/08/2009 (4 day gap followed by 2day gap, followed by 5 day gap, followed by 4day gap, followed by 4day gap)
8/16/2009-8/26/2009 (5day gap followed by 2day gap, and followed by 3day gap)
9/03/2009- 9/13/2009 (5day gap followed by 4day gap)
9/16/2009-9/21/2009 (5day gap)
9/22/2009-10/2/2009 (6day gap followed by a 3 day gap)
10/31/2009 – 11/07/2009 (7day gap)
11/09/2009- 11/19/2009 (3day gap followed by a 6day gap)
12/18/2009-12/23/2009 (5day gap)
12/25/2009-12/30/2009 (5day gap)
Solar Max View
04/01/2013-04/30/2015
3 day or more gap occurrences: 14
Anomalous Weeks:
4/26/2013 – 5/03/2013 (3day gap followed by 3 day gap)
07/15/2013- 07/20/2013 (5 day gap)
That period from mid-July into August in 2009 looks really interesting. There were definitely a lot more quiet days that year, but that still stands out.
Wow! I just downloaded the data from 2009 and it really stands out that there were only 291 events compared to around 1200-1300 in 2014-2016.
To be continued… got to take care of a few things here is where I left off. Nice work Dave Posh! I am posting the link on my excel for solar min for viewing, but I will come back.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HbDvZs5ePCSRjnEkdvpoWkq0AqlWuHrCX7SIVtnY4yQ/edit?usp=sharing
Solar Min View 1986:
09/01/1985-09/30/1987
3day or more gap occurences: 69
Anomalous Weeks:
9/15/1985 – 9/24/1985 (3day gap followed by 6day gap)
9/25/1985 – 9/29/1985 (4day gap)
10/18/1985 – 10/22/1985 (4 day gap)
11/01/1985 – 11/08/1985 (near back to back 3day gaps)
11/23/1985- 11/27/1985 (4day gap)
12/12/1985 – 12/20/1985 (8day gap)
01/10/1986 – 1/16/1986 (near back to back 3day gaps)
01/17/1986 – 01/24/1986 (7 day gap)
01/27/1986 – 01/31/1986 (4day gap)
02/22/1986 – 02/26/1986 (4day gap)
04/03/1986 – 04/19/1986 (near back to back 4 day gap x3)
04/21/1986 – 04/27/1986 (6 day gap)…
Latest data – 2000-01-01 to present. in XLS spreadsheet.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/mx09u9fgl4247yi/2000toPresent.xls?dl=0
Interest graph showing date on bottom axis and quiet prior days on left axis. Haven’t added in fancy labeling yet, but here is a JPG of the graph (also in the above XLS file near the bottom).
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6l8g80aozm07qou/2000-Present_QuietDaysPriorToBlotEchoes-4mag%2B-300km%2B.jpg?dl=0
Feel free to download the files and/or suggest additional analysis.
Regards,
Dave Posh
Cool! That helps things stand out, for sure. Just looking at the numbers, I thought the amount of activity per year was interesting because it varied so widely. It’s definitely picked up in the last three years, though:
2001 573
2002 832
2003 788
2004 1002
2005 872
2006 1015
2007 867
2008 956
2009 291
2010 328
2011 364
2012 407
2013 586
2014 1302
2015 1198
2016 1205
Here’s a quick visual for the years 2002-2017 (1/1-12/16). Before 2004, you can see the grouping at 500km and 600km that makes me think that the data isn’t as precise.
The recent uptick in quakes fits with the acknowledgement of spiritual/prophetic truths in Ben’s work. I’ve heard 1/7/18 is a big day (Dawning of the Age of Aquarius, given in the song that ushered in the birth of my generation), but I’m thinking 1/8/18 is close enough, based on personal knowledge. I could well be wrong, but the signs point me there. I recommend that in the coming days, nobody should hold too tightly to that with which they have been indoctrinated by this system. Flow with your inner knowing, and trust your heart. Destroy your fears, for it is what you fear that will destroy you.
Forgot the link! https://www.dropbox.com/s/5f7p1vpuwnndqrs/Scatter%20plots%20for%20M4%2B%20300km%2B%20Earthquakes.docx?dl=0
I think Signey wins.
Signey send me an email, I want to send you a thank you.
Dave Posh – great work as well!
From 1900 to 1950 the USGS has only 20 recorded M4+ events below 300km. I BELIEVE WE SHOULD ASSUME that they were not good at detecting them until maybe a decade or so ago. The numbers change so drastically.
Signey – I see you also noticed a data change in the 2000s. Can you expand on your observation?
Dave – I’m spending this morning with your worksheet.
Before 1973 there are no listed events lower than M5 — which means they couldn’t detect them.
This is strong evidence that their ability to detect them all continued improving throughout the decades.
Note – On the graph associated with the XLS file that I did… the Y-axis (number between 0 and 9) is the “number of days between this event and a prior event”. When there are multiple events during a day, the Y-axis number will be zero.
Alright Dave and Signey!
Came back on to finish what angle I was at looking at to see that there is a winner. I was curious about what other patterns might emerge pointing out the groupings of anomalous weeks. That was fun 🙂
Amazing work Thank all of you!
The title DEEPER LOOK sure fit the hand to the glove on this one. Wow.
Does anyone know the history of quake detection equipment.? It would be remarkable if we did have have the ability to record deep events pre 2000 and that there simply were not the frequency we have now. Insight from someone who actually manufacturers, installed and maintains these devices is welcome. Think I may do a little research down that angle of this knowledge thread.
Brief research into seismology history and the devices. Very interesting. Go here. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/contactus/albuquerque/history.php
It appears data collection methods continue to evolve around the world. Primarily in the area of real time data communications via Internet and satellites. You data miners might look into USGS history data collection methods to frame your search parameters. Certain data prior to 1971 may be incomplete at best. Data prior to 2000 May be suspect in respect to frequency of reports due to Internet and satellite communication methods.
1982
21st March 606.3km 4.9 Fiji
to 28th March 367km 5.1 Kermadic Islands region. Only 7 day I found, will check again later.
Merry Christmas
for a bit since the 7 pointer in Mexico i was keeping track with google earth and pinning it to the globe of the locations magnitudes and depths and times does any one know if this data can be found else where or if i have to continue to input it manually?