December 17, 2017

Deeper Look – Episode 97 (2017)

Here is the USGS search link: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search

We are looking for gaps in M4+ events at depths greater than 300km. Let’s see how well we can pull this off.

Showing 47 comments
  • Signey
    Reply

    Looking at 2016 now in Excel.

    • Signey
      Reply

      Here are the dates in 2016 without quakes of M4 or greater at a depth over 300km:
      2/11/16
      2/15
      4/6
      4/14
      4/21
      5/22
      6/26
      7/20
      8/5
      9/10
      10/17
      12/27
      It’s very easy to see that there were not even 2 days back-to-back all year.

      • XaviarThunders
        Reply

        Signey, Thanks for the legwork. Great info!
        X

      • S0
        Reply

        Signey this is excellent work.

  • Signey
    Reply

    Looking at 2015. Is there a specific way you want info. on these, Ben?

    • Signey
      Reply

      The dates without M4+ below 300km in 2015:
      1/3/15
      2/1
      2/15
      3/6
      3/25
      4/6
      4/17
      4/22
      5/9
      6/20
      8/17
      8/29
      9/16
      10/3
      10/16
      11/7
      Once again, 3 in April, but none back-to-back all year.

  • Signey
    Reply

    Let’s look at 2014!

    • Signey
      Reply

      M4+ greater than 300km deep:
      1/16/14
      2/25
      3/4
      4/2
      4/11
      4/24
      6/23
      6/26
      6/27
      8/28
      9/3
      Once again April stands out with 3 quiet days, but June actually has 2 days back-to-back for a change.

  • Signey
    Reply

    2013? Here we go.

    • Signey
      Reply

      Wow! 2013 had a lot of quiet days, up to 4 at a time.
      M4+ 300km+
      1/3/13
      1/5
      1/7
      1/8
      1/9
      1/10
      1/13
      1/15
      1/16
      1/17
      1/18
      1/19
      1/21
      1/22
      1/23
      1/25
      1/26
      1/27
      2/2
      2/4
      2/5
      2/6
      2/7
      2/8
      2/10
      2/11
      2/14
      2/16
      2/21
      2/23
      2/24
      2/28
      3/5
      3/7
      3/8
      3/9
      3/19
      3/23
      3/27
      3/28
      4/3
      4/8
      4/10
      4/13
      4/14
      4/24
      4/27
      4/28
      5/1
      5/2
      5/11
      5/15
      5/20
      5/21
      5/29
      5/30
      6/1
      6/3
      6/4
      6/8
      6/9
      6/13
      6/14
      6/16
      6/20
      6/23
      6/28
      6/29
      7/1
      7/5
      7/8
      7/12
      7/14
      7/16
      7/17
      7/18
      7/19
      7/22
      8/2
      8/5
      8/6
      8/11
      8/13
      8/14
      8/22
      8/23
      8/27
      9/1
      9/5
      9/8
      9/14
      9/22
      9/28
      10/16
      10/17
      10/24
      11/6
      12/12

  • Signey
    Reply

    Looking at 2012, December is a bingo! More details to come.

    • Signey
      Reply

      Here’s the dates for 2012 M4+ 300km+ deep:
      1/3/12
      1/6
      1/10
      1/14
      1/15
      1/16
      1/19
      1/21
      1/25
      1/28
      2/9
      2/11
      2/12
      2/13
      2/14
      3/1
      3/2
      3/7
      3/20
      3/21
      3/23
      3/24
      3/28
      4/1
      4/4
      4/5
      4/9
      4/12
      4/17
      4/20
      4/27
      4/28
      4/29
      5/4
      5/6
      5/12
      5/16
      5/21
      5/25
      5/30
      6/4
      6/7
      6/16
      6/18
      6/20
      6/22
      6/24
      6/30
      7/2
      7/4
      7/5
      7/8
      7/15
      7/16
      7/19
      7/22
      7/23
      7/28
      7/30
      8/1
      8/17
      8/19
      8/21
      8/24
      8/25
      8/26
      8/27
      8/28
      9/1
      9/2
      9/3
      9/7
      9/8
      9/9
      9/10
      9/12
      9/15
      9/16
      9/17
      9/19
      9/23
      9/26
      9/28
      9/30
      10/4
      10/5
      10/6
      10/10
      10/13
      10/16
      11/2
      11/5
      11/9
      11/10
      11/13
      11/18
      11/19
      11/20
      11/25
      11/27
      11/28
      12/3
      12/6
      12/7
      12/8
      12/10
      12/12
      12/13
      12/14
      12/15
      12/16
      12/17
      12/18
      12/19
      12/21
      12/29
      12/30
      December 12-19th, all quiet. 4 days together in February, and 5 in August.

  • Dave Posh
    Reply

    Wow. Signey has been very busy, very quickly. 😉
    I went ahead and did 2011 year to see what it looks like. Created a CSV that loaded into Excel. Wow. Lots of info.

    • Dave Posh
      Reply

      Right away, noticed 5 on same day (2011-02-10). This format makes it real easy to add a column with a calculation (“days from previous”). I got 364 hits in 2011.
      Just for the heck of it, going to try 2010-01-01 to present, in one CSV to be able to generate gap data…

      • Dave Posh
        Reply

        2010 to Present got 6488 hits. I’ll put the raw CSV file on my dropbox, and then the XLS file with additional column(s) there too. Will post the link here for people to download the file(s).

        • Dave Posh
          Reply

          Here is the link to access the CSV file for 2010 to Present – https://www.dropbox.com/s/fwy2l572i85iyid/2010toPresent.csv?dl=0

          • Dave Posh

            Here is the XLS file, with 3 columns added, B=Just Date, C=dif, D=Quiet days prior
            https://www.dropbox.com/s/5x71mlt315eq9gt/2010toPresent.xls?dl=0

            During the past 8 years, the max quiet days were 9.

          • Dave Posh

            Out of the 8 years (~2915 days)
            1 quiet day spans= 1949
            2 quiet day spans= 244
            3 quiet day spans= 74
            4 quiet day spans= 28
            5 quiet day spans= 11
            6 quiet day spans= 7
            7 quiet day spans= 3
            8 quiet day spans= 1
            9 quiet day spans= 1
            I’m looking into adding a graph showing time (bottom axis) vs quiet day spans (left axis)….
            (It will be in a couple hours, I’m watching Fort Snelling Memorial Chapel Service right now).

          • Signey

            Wow, Dave! Awesome info. I have so much to learn with Excel, but I love patterns, so I was feeling like a junkie when I got started looking through the data. I have to run errands, but will be back later to look over everything. Thank you for your work on this too!

          • Dave Posh

            Just went and got 2000-2009 data in CSV format. Will also apply XLS columns & formulas to that data. Probably combine it with the 2010-Present data in XLS format. Now working on the graph for all the data.

  • Counselorgimber
    Reply

    Simply looking at two sets of times at the moment- solar minimum and solar maximum to see if this 7 day gap is indicative of the end of the solar cycle. Here is the observation I have so far I will post the links for my excel sheets for people to double check (I highlighted where I found 3 or day gaps):

    Solar Max view from 11/01/2000-11/1/2002

    29 x of 3 or more day+ gaps on solar max period
    Anomalous week: 7/13 – 7/19/2001

    5 day stretch (1/9/2001-1/14) followed up two near back to back 3day gaps at the end of the month

    4 day stretch (happens 9x)

    Solar Min View from 08/01/1995-08/01/98
    17 x of 3 or more day + gaps on solar min period
    Anomalous chain from August 6, 1995 – Aug13 th. Makes for back to back 3 day gaps during a 7 day period. Longest stretch is 4 days (happens 3x)

    • Signey
      Reply

      That’s where I was starting to go with this too, looking at 2003, 2002, to check solar max. I’m trying to take in lots of numbers and let them process subconsciously, but it forced me to power-down and take a nap! lol One thing that stands out is the relatively small number of quakes between 300km-400km. I’m going to have to go back to the more current data and see if it holds during all parts of the cycle. I wish that I was more up on this, but I’ve been focussed on biology, philosophy, and mythology. It’s kind of handy that they are all coming together at this moment in history.

      • Counselorgimber
        Reply

        Yes, your observation about the lack of quakes in that depth is just as interesting. Good work! Yes, I would also agree that an interdisciplinary approach is great to have in this citizen scientist community. Looking forward to what David Posh has with graphs.

      • Signey
        Reply

        The method of calculating depth or classifying data must have changed between the 2002/2003 data and 2015/2016. I’m looking at scatter plots for patterns and it looks like the numbers have gotten more random. I was right about the distribution. It is definitely heaviest in the 500-600km range. I always learn more of the basics when I finally challenge myself to go deeper into something.

    • Counselorgimber
      Reply

      Solar Min View
      12/01/2007 – 12/31/2009
      3 day or more gap occurrences: 50
      Anomalous Weeks 2/12/2009 – 2/18/2009 (back to back 3 day gap)
      2/24/2009-3/02/2009 (6 day gap followed up by 3 day gap)
      3/28/2009-3/31-4/04/2009 (3day gap followed by 4day gap)
      4/23/2009-4/27-4/30/2009 (4day gap followed by 3day gap)
      5/29/2009-6/03/2009 (5day gap)
      6/30/2009-7/04-7/07 (5day gap followed by 3 day gap)
      7/19/2009 – 8/08/2009 (4 day gap followed by 2day gap, followed by 5 day gap, followed by 4day gap, followed by 4day gap)
      8/16/2009-8/26/2009 (5day gap followed by 2day gap, and followed by 3day gap)
      9/03/2009- 9/13/2009 (5day gap followed by 4day gap)
      9/16/2009-9/21/2009 (5day gap)
      9/22/2009-10/2/2009 (6day gap followed by a 3 day gap)
      10/31/2009 – 11/07/2009 (7day gap)
      11/09/2009- 11/19/2009 (3day gap followed by a 6day gap)
      12/18/2009-12/23/2009 (5day gap)
      12/25/2009-12/30/2009 (5day gap)
      Solar Max View
      04/01/2013-04/30/2015
      3 day or more gap occurrences: 14
      Anomalous Weeks:
      4/26/2013 – 5/03/2013 (3day gap followed by 3 day gap)
      07/15/2013- 07/20/2013 (5 day gap)

      • Signey
        Reply

        That period from mid-July into August in 2009 looks really interesting. There were definitely a lot more quiet days that year, but that still stands out.

        • Signey
          Reply

          Wow! I just downloaded the data from 2009 and it really stands out that there were only 291 events compared to around 1200-1300 in 2014-2016.

      • Counselorgimber
        Reply

        To be continued… got to take care of a few things here is where I left off. Nice work Dave Posh! I am posting the link on my excel for solar min for viewing, but I will come back.

        https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HbDvZs5ePCSRjnEkdvpoWkq0AqlWuHrCX7SIVtnY4yQ/edit?usp=sharing

        Solar Min View 1986:
        09/01/1985-09/30/1987
        3day or more gap occurences: 69
        Anomalous Weeks:
        9/15/1985 – 9/24/1985 (3day gap followed by 6day gap)
        9/25/1985 – 9/29/1985 (4day gap)
        10/18/1985 – 10/22/1985 (4 day gap)
        11/01/1985 – 11/08/1985 (near back to back 3day gaps)
        11/23/1985- 11/27/1985 (4day gap)
        12/12/1985 – 12/20/1985 (8day gap)
        01/10/1986 – 1/16/1986 (near back to back 3day gaps)
        01/17/1986 – 01/24/1986 (7 day gap)
        01/27/1986 – 01/31/1986 (4day gap)
        02/22/1986 – 02/26/1986 (4day gap)
        04/03/1986 – 04/19/1986 (near back to back 4 day gap x3)
        04/21/1986 – 04/27/1986 (6 day gap)…

  • Dave Posh
    Reply

    Latest data – 2000-01-01 to present. in XLS spreadsheet.
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/mx09u9fgl4247yi/2000toPresent.xls?dl=0

    Interest graph showing date on bottom axis and quiet prior days on left axis. Haven’t added in fancy labeling yet, but here is a JPG of the graph (also in the above XLS file near the bottom).
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/6l8g80aozm07qou/2000-Present_QuietDaysPriorToBlotEchoes-4mag%2B-300km%2B.jpg?dl=0

    Feel free to download the files and/or suggest additional analysis.
    Regards,
    Dave Posh

    • Signey
      Reply

      Cool! That helps things stand out, for sure. Just looking at the numbers, I thought the amount of activity per year was interesting because it varied so widely. It’s definitely picked up in the last three years, though:
      2001 573
      2002 832
      2003 788
      2004 1002
      2005 872
      2006 1015
      2007 867
      2008 956
      2009 291
      2010 328
      2011 364
      2012 407
      2013 586
      2014 1302
      2015 1198
      2016 1205

  • Signey
    Reply

    Here’s a quick visual for the years 2002-2017 (1/1-12/16). Before 2004, you can see the grouping at 500km and 600km that makes me think that the data isn’t as precise.

    The recent uptick in quakes fits with the acknowledgement of spiritual/prophetic truths in Ben’s work. I’ve heard 1/7/18 is a big day (Dawning of the Age of Aquarius, given in the song that ushered in the birth of my generation), but I’m thinking 1/8/18 is close enough, based on personal knowledge. I could well be wrong, but the signs point me there. I recommend that in the coming days, nobody should hold too tightly to that with which they have been indoctrinated by this system. Flow with your inner knowing, and trust your heart. Destroy your fears, for it is what you fear that will destroy you.

  • S0
    Reply

    I think Signey wins.

  • S0
    Reply

    Signey send me an email, I want to send you a thank you.

  • S0
    Reply

    Dave Posh – great work as well!

  • S0
    Reply

    From 1900 to 1950 the USGS has only 20 recorded M4+ events below 300km. I BELIEVE WE SHOULD ASSUME that they were not good at detecting them until maybe a decade or so ago. The numbers change so drastically.

  • S0
    Reply

    Signey – I see you also noticed a data change in the 2000s. Can you expand on your observation?

    Dave – I’m spending this morning with your worksheet.

  • S0
    Reply

    Before 1973 there are no listed events lower than M5 — which means they couldn’t detect them.

    This is strong evidence that their ability to detect them all continued improving throughout the decades.

  • Dave Posh
    Reply

    Note – On the graph associated with the XLS file that I did… the Y-axis (number between 0 and 9) is the “number of days between this event and a prior event”. When there are multiple events during a day, the Y-axis number will be zero.

  • Counselorgimber
    Reply

    Alright Dave and Signey!

    Came back on to finish what angle I was at looking at to see that there is a winner. I was curious about what other patterns might emerge pointing out the groupings of anomalous weeks. That was fun 🙂

  • Uncleharley
    Reply

    Amazing work Thank all of you!

  • Caroline5765
    Reply

    The title DEEPER LOOK sure fit the hand to the glove on this one. Wow.

  • Randrat
    Reply

    Does anyone know the history of quake detection equipment.? It would be remarkable if we did have have the ability to record deep events pre 2000 and that there simply were not the frequency we have now. Insight from someone who actually manufacturers, installed and maintains these devices is welcome. Think I may do a little research down that angle of this knowledge thread.

  • Randrat
    Reply

    Brief research into seismology history and the devices. Very interesting. Go here. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/contactus/albuquerque/history.php
    It appears data collection methods continue to evolve around the world. Primarily in the area of real time data communications via Internet and satellites. You data miners might look into USGS history data collection methods to frame your search parameters. Certain data prior to 1971 may be incomplete at best. Data prior to 2000 May be suspect in respect to frequency of reports due to Internet and satellite communication methods.

  • spiralup
    Reply

    1982

    • spiralup
      Reply

      21st March 606.3km 4.9 Fiji
      to 28th March 367km 5.1 Kermadic Islands region. Only 7 day I found, will check again later.
      Merry Christmas

  • Tweak
    Reply

    for a bit since the 7 pointer in Mexico i was keeping track with google earth and pinning it to the globe of the locations magnitudes and depths and times does any one know if this data can be found else where or if i have to continue to input it manually?

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