Update: 5:36pm Eastern Time
Earthquake Condition Index: B
Coronal Hole – Powerful and almost earth facing.
Spaceweather – M Flare, not much on the solar wind.
Sunspots – We appear to be post-peak of SSN.
Also, from Gatherer314
Not sure if you have this paper already(?) but thought I’d give it a quick mention..
‘The Nebula Winter: The united view of the snowball Earth, mass extinctions, and explosive evolution in the late Neoproterozoic and Cambrian periods’
Encounters with nebulae, such as supernova remnants and dark clouds in the galaxy, can lead to an environmental catastrophe on the Earth through the negative climate forcings and destruction of the ozone layer by enhanced fluxes of cosmic rays and cosmic dust particles. A resultant reduction in primary productivity leads to mass extinctions through depletion of oxygen and food starvations as well as anoxia in the ocean. The model shows three levels of hierarchical time variations caused by supernova encounters (1–10 kyrs), dark cloud encounters (0.1–10 Myrs), and starbursts (~ 100 Myrs), respectively. This “Nebula Winter” model can explain the catastrophic phenomena such as snowball Earth events, repeated mass extinctions, and Cambrian explosion of biodiversities which took place in the late Proterozoic era through the Cambrian period. The Late Neoproterozoic snowball Earth event covers a time range of ca. 200 Myrs long spanning from 770 Ma to the end of Cambrian period (488 Ma) with two snowball states called Sturtian and Marinoan events. Mass extinctions occurred at least eight times in this period, synchronized with large fluctuations in δ13C of carbonates in the sediment. Each event is likely to correspond to each nebula encounter. In other words, the late Neoproterozoic snowball Earth and Cambrian explosion are possibly driven by a starburst, which took place around 0.6 Ga in the Milky Way Galaxy. The evidences for a Nebula Winter can be obtained from geological records in sediment in the deep oceans at those times.
A few other pieces (authored or co-authored) by Miyahara –
‘Possible link between multi-decadal climate cycles and periodic reversals of solar magnetic field polarity’
The linkage between multi-decadal climate variability and activity of the sun has been long debated based upon observational evidence from a large number of instrumental and proxy records. It is difficult to evaluate the exact role of each of solar parameters on climate change since instrumentally measured solar related parameters such as Total Solar irradiance (TSI), Ultra Violet (UV), solar wind and Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) fluxes are more or less synchronized and only extend back for several decades. Here we report tree-ring carbon-14 based record of 11-year/22-year solar cycles during the Maunder Minimum (17th century) and the early Medieval Maximum Period (9–10th century) to reconstruct the state of the sun and the flux of incoming GCRs. The result strongly indicates that the influence of solar cycles on climate is persistent beyond the period after instrumental observations were initiated. We find that the actual lengths of solar cycles vary depending on the status of long-term solar activity, and that periodicity of the surface air temperatures are also changing synchronously. Temperature variations over the 22-year cycles seem, in general, to be more significant than those associated with the 11-year cycles and in particular around the grand solar minima such as the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD). The polarity dependence of cooling events found in this study suggests that the GCRs can not be excluded from the possible drivers of decadal to multi-decadal climate change.
‘9,400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings’
Paleo-cosmic-ray (PCR) records based on cosmogenic 10Be and 14C data are used to study the variations in cosmic-ray intensity and solar activity over the past 9400 years. There are four strong correlations with the motion of the Jovian planets; the probability of occurring by chance being < 10−5. They are i) the PCR periodicities at 87, 350, 510, and 710 years, which closely approximate integer multiples of half the Uranus–Neptune synodic period; ii) eight periodicities in the torques calculated to be exerted by the planets on an asymmetric tachocline that approximate the periods observed in the PCR; iii) the maxima of the long-term PCR variations are coincident with syzygy (alignment) of the four Jovian planets in 5272 and 644 BP; and iv) in the time domain, the PCR intensity decreases during the first 60 years of the ≈ 172 year Jose cycle (Jose, Astron. J. 70, 193, 1965) and increases in the remaining ≈ 112 years in association with barycentric anomalies in the distance between the Sun and the center of mass of the solar system. Furthermore, sunspot and neutron-monitor data show that three anomalous sunspot cycles (4th, 7th, and 20th) and the long sunspot minimum of 2006 – 2009 CE coincided with the first and second barycentric anomalies of the 58th and 59th Jose cycles. Phase lags between the planetary and heliospheric effects are ≤ five years. The 20 largest Grand Minima during the past 9400 years coincided with the latter half of the Jose cycle in which they occurred. These correlations are not of terrestrial origin, nor are they due to the planets’ contributing directly to the cosmic-ray modulation process in the heliosphere. Low cosmic-ray intensity (higher solar activity) occurred when Uranus and Neptune were in superior conjunction (mutual cancellation), while high intensities occurred when Uranus–Neptune were in inferior conjunction (additive effects). Many of the prominent peaks in the PCR Fourier spectrum can be explained in terms of the Jose cycle, and the occurrence of barycentric anomalies. ~ http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-014-0510-1 'Is the Sun Heading for Another Maunder Minimum? Precursors of the Grand Solar Minima' ~ http://journalofcosmology.com/ClimateChange104.html 'Variation of the Schwabe Cycle Length During the Grand Solar Minimum in the 4th Century BC Deduced from Radiocarbon Content in Tree Rings' Abstract: Solar activity alternates between active and quiet phases with an average period of 11 years, and this is known as the Schwabe cycle. Additionally, solar activity occasionally falls into a prolonged quiet phase (grand solar minimum), as represented by the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century, when sunspots were almost absent for 70 years and the length of the Schwabe cycle increased to 14 years. To examine the consistency of the cycle length characteristics during the grand solar minima, the carbon-14 contents in single-year tree rings were measured using an accelerator mass spectrometer as an index of the solar variability during the grand solar minimum of the 4th century BC. The signal of the Schwabe cycle was detected with a statistical confidence level of higher than 95 % by wavelet analysis. This is the oldest evidence for the Schwabe cycle at the present time, and the cycle length is considered to have increased to approximately 16 years during the grand solar minimum of the 4th century BC. This result confirms the association between the increase of the Schwabe cycle length and the weakening of solar activity, and indicates the possible prolonged absence of sunspots in the 4th century BC as during the Maunder Minimum. Theoretical implications from solar dynamo theory are discussed in order to identify the trigger of prolonged sunspot absence. A possible association between the long-term solar variation around the 4th century BC and terrestrial cooling in this period is also discussed. ~ http://ir.nul.nagoya-u.ac.jp/jspui/bitstream/2237/16584/1/k9509.pdf 'Anomalous 10Be spikes during the Maunder Minimum: Possible evidence for extreme space weather in the heliosphere' Abstract: Extreme space weather conditions pose significant problems for standard space weather models, which are available for some limited realistic parameter ranges. As a good example, anomalous spikes of cosmic ray induced 10Be have been found during the Maunder Minimum (AD1645–1715) at the qA negative solar minima, which cannot be quantitatively explained by standard drift theories of cosmic ray transport alone. Such an extreme amplification of solar cycle modulation of cosmic rays is presumably related to the altered condition of heliospheric environment at the prolonged sunspot disappearance, providing a clue for comprehensive understandings of long-term changes in heliospheric environment, solar cycle modulation of cosmic rays, and the maximal range of incident cosmic ray flux that is very important for our practical space activities. Model sophistication to achieve precise forecast of such extreme condition of the heliosphere and the incoming cosmic ray flux is also of urgent need as the Sun is currently showing a tendency toward lower activity. Here we show that the cosmic ray spikes found at the Maunder Minimum may be explained by the contribution from the cross-sector transport mechanism working in the heliosheath where cosmic ray particles effectively drift across stacked magnetic sectors due to the larger cyclotron radius than the distance between the sectors. Based on the new interpretation of the 10Be record, we clarify potentially important problems for space weather modelers to help with more realistic modeling of the heliosphere during periods of extremely weak solar activity, such as the Maunder Minimum. ~http://polaris.nipr.ac.jp/~ryuho/pub0/Kataoka2012SW_MaunderMinimum.pdf 'Snowball Earth events driven by starbursts of the Milky Way Galaxy' ~http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Toshikazu_Ebisuzaki/publication/234043917_Snowball_Earth_events_driven_by_starbursts_of_the_Milky_Way_Galaxy/file/d912f50fbc9b77ae85.pdf '27-day variation in cloud amount in the Western Pacific warm pool region and relationship to the solar cycle' ~ http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/1577/2010/acp-10-1577-2010.pdf [38th COSPAR Scientific Assembly] 'Variability of cosmic rays and its influence on climate change at the multi-decadal time scale' ~ http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010cosp...38.1727M ~ http://gacc.nifc.gov/sacc/predictive/SOLAR_WEATHER-CLIMATE_STUDIES/Solar%20Cycle%20at%20maunder%20Minimum%20Miyahara_AG06.pdf [Presentation slides] 'Decadal Variations of Solar Magnetic Field, Heliosphere and the Cosmic Rays, and their Impact on Climate Change' ~http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2011ScienceMeeting/docs/presentations/2k_Miyahara_SORCE_brief.pdf [Video presentation] 'Solar Activity and Climate' 1. Introduction Instrumentally measured or reconstructed past climate changes often show positive correlation with solar activity at the wide range of time scales, such as from monthly (Takahashi et al., 2010) to millennial (Bond et al., 2001). However, the mechanisms of their linkage have not been well understood. The possible solar-related parameters that can drive climate change are; total solar irradiance (TSI), solar ultra violet (UV), solar wind (SW) and the galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). The galactic cosmic rays are attenuated by changing solar magnetic field in the heliosphere; the region where the wind of solar plasma and magnetic filed expend. The observed flux of GCRs shows inverse correlation to solar activity. It is known that the change in the cosmic ray flux results in the change in the ionization rate in the atmosphere. It is suggested that it may cause the change in cloud amount. 2. Variation of Galactic Cosmic Rays during the Maunder Minimum It is difficult to evaluate the exact role of each of solar-related parameters above, since most of them are more or less synchronized for the instrumental period. However, the variation of solar radiation and GCRs may be different at the Maunder Minimum (AD1645-1715). The Maunder Minimum is a period of sunspot absence lasted about 70 years. The Sun has shown periodic variation with ~11-year period since the beginning of the 18th century. However, the sunspots had almost disappeared and apparent ~11-year cycles had been lost during the Maunder Minimum. It means that solar activity had been extraordinarily weak and that the environment of heliosphere had been different from today. We found that the variation of GCRs was very unique during the time. The variation of GCRs has been revealed by the measurements of cosmic-ray induced radio isotopes such as carbon-14 and beryllium-10 in tree rings or ice cores. The content of radio isotopes have shown that solar cycle had been kept during the long-lasting sunspot absence, but with ~14-year period. It has been also revealed that the 22-year cycle; the cycle of periodic reversal of solar dipole magnetic field, had been also kept but with ~28-year period and had been amplified during the time. The polarity of the Sun reverses at the maxima of solar cycles, and thus holds ~22-year period. The ~22-year cycle is not observed in the changes in solar radiations; however it appears in the variation of GCRs consisting of mainly changed particles. The changes in the environment of heliosphere had probably resulted in the amplification of the 22-year cycle in GCRs. 3. Variation of climate and its relation to Galactic Cosmic Rays We have found that reconstructed climate data show unique variations similar to that of GCRs during the Maunder Minimum. For example, the northern hemispheric temperatures are significantly dependent on the direction of solar dipole magnetic field. At the phases of negative polarity of dipole magnetic field, when GCRs show anomalous increase, we observe colder climate. The dependence of climate change on solar dipole magnetic field results in the manifestation of 22-year cycle in climate change. The cause of decadal to multi-decadal climate changes had not been well understood, however, our study suggests that GCRs may be the playing important role in climate change at those time scales. Conclusion: More detailed studies are needed to reveal the mechanisms of solar influence on climate change; however, our study has suggested that not only solar irradiative outputs but also magnetic property is playing important role in climate change possibly through changing the flux of GCRs. The mechanisms how the cosmic rays change the cloud property should be clarified in the future studies. ~ http://vimeo.com/30119927 'Explosive volcanic eruptions triggered by cosmic rays: Volcano as a bubble chamber' Abstract: Volcanoes with silica-rich and highly viscous magma tend to produce violent explosive eruptions that result in disasters in local communities and that strongly affect the global environment. We examined the timing of 11 eruptive events that produced silica-rich magma from four volcanoes in Japan (Mt. Fuji, Mt. Usu, Myojin-sho, and Satsuma-Iwo-jima) over the past 306 years (from AD 1700 to AD 2005). Nine of the 11 events occurred during inactive phases of solar magnetic activity (solar minimum), which is well indexed by the group sunspot number. This strong association between eruption timing and the solar minimum is statistically significant to a confidence level of 96.7%. This relationship is not observed for eruptions from volcanoes with relatively silica-poor magma, such as Izu-Ohshima. It is well known that the cosmic-ray flux is negatively correlated with solar magnetic activity, as the strong magnetic field in the solar wind repels charged particles such as galactic cosmic rays that originate from outside of the solar system. The strong negative correlation observed between the timing of silica-rich eruptions and solar activity can be explained by variations in cosmic-ray flux arising from solar modulation. Because silica-rich magma has relatively high surface tension (~ 0.1 Nm−1), the homogeneous nucleation rate is so low that such magma exists in a highly supersaturated state without considerable exsolution, even when located relatively close to the surface, within the penetration range of cosmic-ray muons (1–10 GeV). These muons can contribute to nucleation in supersaturated magma, as documented by many authors studying a bubble chamber, via ionization loss. This radiation-induced nucleation can lead to the pre-eruptive exsolution of H2O in the silica-rich magma. We note the possibility that the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption was triggered by the same mechanism: an increase in cosmic-ray flux triggered by Typhoon Yunya, as a decrease in atmospheric pressure results in an increase in cosmic-ray flux. We also speculate that the snowball Earth event was triggered by successive large-scale volcanic eruptions triggered by increased cosmic-ray flux due to nearby supernova explosions. ~http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Toshikazu_Ebisuzaki/publication/234022172_Explosive_volcanic_eruptions_triggered_by_cosmic_rays_Volcano_as_a_bubble_chamber/file/79e4150fbcf41ad5a1.pdf Although I've mentioned a couple of them before, maybe you could post these links for those who are unaware and/or interested on my behalf, or not, I'll leave it up to you. Hope all is well with you and yours, peace out.