Update 8:45pm Eastern Time – 6.5 Earthquake in Tonga – this is right in the middle of the localized watch from earlier tonight.
Update 6:15pm Eastern Time
Earthquake Condition Index: C+. The Coronal openings are not terribly convincing, the planetary geometry is muted along with the space weather. There is a localized watch of B from New Zealand to Yap, Micronesia.
Solar Notes: The High C Flare is resulting POST_CME… that means a filament released and the reconnecting magnetic fields are the cause of the flaring… not the other way around. The departing group won’t complex in time for geoeffective CMEs but does become a polar proton consideration if it mixes magnetically. In terms of the streams from the existing/hard-to-see coronal holes… we might be seeing the start of the departing (visible) opening’s stream now. Tomorrow will tell. A concentration of strong umbras like what exists incoming on the south will birth filaments readily… something else to watch. M flare chances are 60%.