Update: 6:55pm Eastern Time
We are already at KP6 – that is the max of my predicted instability for this event – is it possible that the M flare and X flare CME’s combined at the bowshock of the coronal hole stream? Yes. It is also possible there is more to come. We must now consider that prediction to be potentially flawed, and stronger storms to be possible. When looking at the GOES magnetometer one begins to question just how much of that our shield can handle.
Earthquake Condition Index B
The current coronal hole appears less powerful, and the magnetic fields appear wanting to ‘block’. The areas of focus so far, Arabian Sea, Drake Passage and Alaska, retain their elevated condition of B+ to A-. Also, it is important to remember that seismicity is actually lessened during high geomagnetic activity, but can rise more sharply than expected if the solar wind quiets too quickly (especially to levels below 300km/sec).
There has been no major flaring of note today. The delta class is 99% confirmed in my eyes at both spots mentioned this morning, but they remain stable, along with the filaments. The disk remains peppered with smaller umbras that do not appear ready to flare just yet.
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