Update #2: 6:35pm Eastern Time

Update #1: 4:25pm Eastern Time

Solar Notes: The sunspots down south appear to be ramping the GOES and worth watching for magnetic mixing. Upgrading chances of an M flare to 40% (from normal chance of <25%). Earthquake Watch Score: 5. The coronal fields are blocking the departing opening and sitting atop what appears to be another one waiting to emerge in the field have another twist like we've seen. If not, the next openings appear to be incoming now, although not showing to be terribly powerful on ISWA.