Update: 7:50pm Eastern Time

Earthquake watch score: 7. The coronal fields beginning to close makes me worry that this watch may not be what I anticipated (again). We are still elevated on the coronal holes, pressure build-up, and the coming Mercury/Sun conjunction. That alignment, on the 27th, kicks off 10 days of crazy planetary geometry!!!

Solar Notes: Simple. Spots are here, they are complexing, they are not living up to their magnetic class. In 2011 I would have almost guaranteed an X flare by the morning with these spots. I currently put the chances for another M flare around 50%… which is well north of what we’ve seen since 2012.