Update: 12:30pm Eastern Time
HELLO ALL! Tonight’s event may go late and I am not sure there will be time to do the evening news – just in case that happens, here is what I’m reading today [Gatherer314’s notes]
‘Long-Term Trends in Downwelling Spectral Infrared Radiance over the U.S. Southern Great Plains’
“..The measured infrared spectra, numbering more than 800 000, were classified as clear-sky, thin cloud, and thick cloud scenes using a neural network method. The AERI data record demonstrates that the downwelling infrared radiance is decreasing over this 14-yr period in the winter, summer, and autumn seasons but it is increasing in the spring;..”
‘Evaluation of errors made in solar irradiance estimation due to averaging the Angstrom turbidity coefficient’
“Even though the monitoring of solar radiation experienced a vast progress in the recent years both in terms of expanding the measurement networks and increasing the data quality, the number of stations is still too small to achieve accurate global coverage. Alternatively, various models for estimating solar radiation are exploited in many applications. Choosing a model is often limited by the availability of the meteorological parameters required for its running. In many cases the current values of the parameters are replaced with daily, monthly or even yearly average values. This paper deals with the evaluation of the error made in estimating global solar irradiance by using an average value of the Angstrom turbidity coefficient instead of its current value .. It is shown that the relative errors in estimating global solar irradiance (GHI) due to inadequate consideration of Angstrom turbidity coefficient may be very high, even exceeding 20%..”
‘Can irregularities of solar proxies help understand quasi-biennial solar variations?’
“..We propose that the HSV behavior of the irregularity index of ISSN may be linked to the presence of strong QBO before 1915–1930, a transition and their disappearance around 1975, corresponding to a change in regime of solar activity.”
‘The heliospheric magnetic flux, solar wind proton flux, and cosmic ray intensity during the coming solar minimum’
Recent papers have linked the heliospheric magnetic flux to the sunspot cycle with good correlation observed between prediction and observation. Other papers have shown a strong correlation between magnetic flux and solar wind proton flux from coronal holes. We combine these efforts with an expectation that the sunspot activity of the approaching solar minimum will resemble the Dalton or Gleissberg Minimum and predict that the magnetic flux and solar wind proton flux over the coming decade will be lower than at any time during the space age. Using these predictions and established theory, we also predict record high galactic cosmic ray intensities over the same years. The analysis shown here is a prediction of global space climate change within which space weather operates. It predicts a new parameter regime for the transient space weather behavior that can be expected during the coming decade.
‘The Centennial Gleissberg Cycle and its Association with Extended Minima’
The recent extended minimum of solar and geomagnetic variability (XSM) mirrors the XSMs in the 19th and 20th centuries: 1810–1830 and 1900–1910. Such extended minima also were evident in aurorae reported from 450 AD to 1450 AD. This paper argues that these minima are consistent with minima of the Centennial Gleissberg Cycles (CGC), a 90–100 year variation observed on the Sun, in the solar wind, at the Earth and throughout the Heliosphere. The occurrence of the recent XSM is consistent with the existence of the CGC as a quasi-periodic variation of the solar dynamo. Evidence of CGC’s is provided by the multi-century sunspot record, by the almost 150-year record of indexes of geomagnetic activity (1868-present), by 1,000 years of observations of aurorae (from 450 to 1450 AD) and millennial records of radionuclides in ice cores. The aa index of geomagnetic activity carries information about the two components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal and poloidal), one driven by flares and CMEs (related to the toroidal field) the other driven by co-rotating interaction regions in the solar wind (related to the poloidal field). These two components systematically vary in their intensity and relative phase giving us information about centennial changes of the sources of solar dynamo during the recent CGC over the last century. The dipole and quadrupole modes of the solar magnetic field changed in relative amplitude and phase; the quadrupole mode became more important as the XSM was approached. Some implications for the solar dynamo theory are discussed.
‘Testing long-term summer temperature reconstruction based on maximum density chronologies obtained by reanalysis of tree-ring data sets from northernmost Sweden and Finland’
“..We used the two MXD data sets to reconstruct summer temperature variations over the period 8 BC through AD 2010. Our new reconstruction shows multi-decadal to multi-centennial variability with changes in the amplitude of the summer temperature of 2.2 °C on average during the Common Era..”
‘Reducing Carbon by Curbing Population’
“..Professor Cohen have noted that reducing the burning of fossil fuels might be easier if there were fewer of us consuming them..”
Also, here are some of the papers/links I thought you may be interested in, that I’ve been meaning to send over [apologies for the delay]…
‘Are Changes in the Earth’s Rotation Rate Externally Driven and Do They Affect Climate?’
Evidence is presented to show that the phases of two of the Earth’s major climate systems, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), are related to changes in the Earth’s rotation rate. We find that the winter NAO index depends upon the time rate of change of the Earth’s length of day (LOD). In addition, we find that there is a remarkable correlation between the years where the phase of the PDO is most positive and the years where the deviation of the Earth’s LOD from its long-term trend is greatest. In order to prove that the variations in the NAO and PDO indices are caused by changes in the Earth’s rotation rate, and not the other way around, we show that there is a strong correlation between the times of maximum deviation of the Earth’s LOD from its long-term trend and the times where there are abrupt asymmetries in the motion of the Sun about the CM of the Solar System.
‘Millennial scale cyclicity in the geodynamo inferred from a dipole tilt reconstruction’
“..The dipole tilt reconstruction is highly correlated to millennial scale variations in the length of day that have been reconstructed from ancient records of eclipses, which indicates that the cyclicity may constitute an important component in core flow dynamics.”
‘The Moon and El Niño’
Regional climates around the world display cycles corresponding to the 18.61-year maximum lunar declination (MLD) periodicity. We suggest that these cycles are created by a relationship between MLD and El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature and South Pacific atmospheric pressure significantly correlate with maximum lunar declination. Low MLDs are associated with warmer equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures and negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index. A lunar-influenced change in the Pacific gyre circulation presents a viable physical mechanism for explaining these relationships. We suggest that the gyre is enhanced by tidal forces under high MLDs, inducing cold-water advection into the equatorial region but is restricted by the weak tidal forcing of low MLDs thereby favoring El Niño episodes. An astronomical model utilizing this relationship produces a forecast of increased non-El Niño (either La Niña or neutral) activity for the early part of this decade.
‘A Pervasive Millennial-Scale in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial Climates’
‘Geomagnetic jerks and a high-resolution length-of-day profile for core studies.’
‘Characterization and implications of intradecadal variations in length of day’
‘Earth’s spin and volcanic eruptions: evidence for mutual cause-and-effect interactions?’
“The angular velocity of Earth’s rotation shows decadal oscillations due to the lunisolar gravitational torque, as well as inter- or intra-annual changes arising from the angular momentum exchange between the atmosphere and the solid Earth. The energies involved in the Length of Day (LOD) variations may affect the crustal deformation rate and seismic energy release on a global scale. We found significant correlation between the occurrences of major volcanic eruptions and the LOD pattern since AD 1750. On a multiyear scale, eruption frequency worldwide increases with LOD changes. Moreover, the injection of sulphur gases into the atmosphere during major eruptions is accompanied by significant inter-annual LOD variations. This provides evidence of complex mutual cause-and-effect interactions: stress changes induced by multiyear variations in Earth’s spin may affect climactic volcanic activity; also, the atmosphere’s dynamic response to volcanic plumes may result in global changes of wind circulation and climate, with consequent LOD variations.” ~ http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ter.12073/full
‘Focus: Simulations Strengthen Earth’s Magnetic-Field/Climate Connection’
“Rock samples show that variations in Earth’s magnetic field over tens to hundreds of thousands of years are roughly synchronized with the ice ages. In Physical Review Letters, researchers present a simulation that strengthens the case that the field was influenced by climate changes. The simulation shows that the magnetic field is stronger when Earth rotates faster, which could have occurred when the polar ice caps expanded. The researchers’ model assumes an unrealistically large variation in Earth’s rotation rate in order to show the effect clearly, but the findings could still help geophysicists better understand the value of Earth’s magnetic field record as an indicator of climate history…”
‘Manifestation of solar and geodynamic activity in the dynamics of the Earth’s rotation’
The relationships between different manifestations of solar and geomagnetic activity and the structural peculiarities of the dynamics of the pole wobble and irregularities in the Earth’s rotation are studied using singular spectrum analysis. There are two close major peaks and several lower ones in the same frequency range (1.1–1.3 years) in the Chandler wobble (CW) spectrum. Components in the geomagnetic activity were distinguished in the same frequency band (by the Dst and Ap indices). Six- to seven-year oscillations in the Earth’s rotation rate with a complex dynamics of amplitude variations are shown in variations in geomagnetic activity. It is revealed that secular (decade) variations in the Earth’s rotation rate on average repeat global variations in the secular trend of the Earth’s geomagnetic field with a delay of eight years during the whole observation period.
‘Solar activity and earth rotation variability’
The analysis of variability in Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) and Length of day (LOD) of Abarca del Rio et al. [Ann. Geophys. 18 (2000) 347] is extended to investigate a possible connection with solar activity fluctuations from interannual to secular time scales. The southern oscillation index and records of sea surface temperature are used as proxy series in this analysis during the era prior to the availability of AAM analyses. At interannual times scales, the variability in AAM and LOD agrees with that in solar activity with regard to the decadal cycle in the stratospheric quasi biennial oscillation and solar activity but whose phases are slowly shifting from one another with time, while the stratospheric quasi biennial cycle agrees with the solar quasi biennial cycle, though led by 6 years. At decadal times scales, AAM varies statistically with the solar decadal cycle over much of the last century since 1930–1940. The decadal mode in AAM is suggested here to be generated by upward propagation of surface atmospheric modes, from the surface throughout the troposphere through the stratosphere. Equatorial Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability may be considered a proxy index for AAM variability because of the relationship to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation; its analysis over the last three centuries (1730–2000) and that of LOD since 1830 confirm the agreement found over the last part of the 20th century, as well as the general disagreement before.
‘Solar Wind, Earth’s Rotation and Changes in Terrestrial Climate’
‘Rotation of the Earth, solar activity and cosmic ray intensity’
‘Possible link between multi-decadal climate cycles and periodic reversals of solar magnetic field polarity’
The linkage between multi-decadal climate variability and activity of the sun has been long debated based upon observational evidence from a large number of instrumental and proxy records. It is difficult to evaluate the exact role of each of solar parameters on climate change since instrumentally measured solar related parameters such as Total Solar irradiance (TSI), Ultra Violet (UV), solar wind and Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) fluxes are more or less synchronized and only extend back for several decades. Here we report tree-ring carbon-14 based record of 11-year/22-year solar cycles during the Maunder Minimum (17th century) and the early Medieval Maximum Period (9–10th century) to reconstruct the state of the sun and the flux of incoming GCRs. The result strongly indicates that the influence of solar cycles on climate is persistent beyond the period after instrumental observations were initiated. We find that the actual lengths of solar cycles vary depending on the status of long-term solar activity, and that periodicity of the surface air temperatures are also changing synchronously. Temperature variations over the 22-year cycles seem, in general, to be more significant than those associated with the 11-year cycles and in particular around the grand solar minima such as the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD). The polarity dependence of cooling events found in this study suggests that the GCRs can not be excluded from the possible drivers of decadal to multi-decadal climate change.
‘Possible Linkage between Geomagnetic Field, Temperature and Monsoon: Implication of High-Resolution Magnetic and Climatic Data from a Sediment Core in Osaka Bay, Japan’
Observed correlation between galactic cosmic ray (CR) flux and cloud cover suggests that variations in geomagnetic field intensity could change climate through modulation of CR flux. Kitaba et al. (2013) reported a pollen-based climate cooling that coincided with a large decrease in field intensity during the Matuyama-Brunhes and Lower Jaramillo geomagnetic polarity reversals using a sediment core from Osaka Bay, Japan. The cooling event is not attributed to orbital forcing, but to the geomagnetic field intensity variation through modulation of CR flux. If the geomagnetic field intensity disturbs global heat balance, it may further affect monsoon and/or precipitation. Our pollen-based climate data show that during the cooling the difference in mean temperature between the warmest and coldest months (indicator of land-ocean temperature gradient) increased, and the summer precipitation (indicator of summer monsoon intensity) decreased. Assuming a simple model that the monsoon is driven by the land-ocean temperature gradient, the cooling effect would be larger over the land than the sea.
‘The importance of geomagnetic field changes versus rising CO2 levels for long-term change in the upper atmosphere’
Abstract: The Earth’s upper atmosphere has shown signs of cooling and contraction over the past decades. This is generally attributed to the increasing level of atmospheric CO2, a coolant in the upper atmosphere. However, especially the charged part of the upper atmosphere, the ionosphere, also responds to the Earth’s magnetic field, which has been weakening considerably over the past century, as well as changing in structure. The relative importance of the changing geomagnetic field compared to enhanced CO2 levels for long-term change in the upper atmosphere is still a matter of debate. Here we present a quantitative comparison of the effects of the increase in CO2 concentration and changes in the magnetic field from 1908 to 2008, based on simulations with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM). This demonstrates that magnetic field changes contribute at least as much as the increase in CO2 concentration to changes in the height of the maximum electron density in the ionosphere, and much more to changes in the maximum electron density itself and to low-/mid-latitude ionospheric currents. Changes in the magnetic field even contribute to cooling of the thermosphere at ~300 km altitude, although the increase in CO2 concentration is still the dominant factor here. Both processes are roughly equally important for long-term changes in ion temperature.
~ http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010JC006645/pdf[Couple on Volcanic-solar activity] ‘Possible correlation between solar and volcanic activity in a long-term scale.’
‘The Role of Explosive Volcanism During the Cool Maunder Minimum.’
‘Sun / dust correlations and volcanic interference.’
‘Volcanic eruptions and solar activity,’
‘Bipolar correlation of volcanism with millennial climate change.’
‘THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC ACTIVITY OF THE EARTH ON THE BASIS OF THE DRM-APPROACH.’
‘Effect of ENSO and volcanic events on the Sun-cloud link.’
Hope all is well with you and yours,