Update: 6:55pm Eastern Time:
Earthquake Condition Index B- to C+
The southern coronal hole is exiting. Mars-Earth-Uranus tomorrow provides a minor opposition of note. The energy from the spaceweather will integrate over the next day. All of this keeps the watch level moderate. Based on the information in tonight’s news, we can preliminarily expect a condition index rise to B+ or higher in the coming days. The Mercury/Sun conjunction this weekend begins to be significant tomorrow, and the next coronal hole is transequatorial and incoming. The main factor in determining the actual condition index during the following 7 days will be the coronal hole power. However, more flaring could change that scenario.
Solar Notes: More flaring not likely. Filament eruptions present a larger threat over the next 7 days, although one shouldn’t consider it any real threat. None of the filaments are anywhere near as large as others we have seen, those on the equator are smaller than the ones at higher latitudes, and we have seen more polar-directed filament eruptions than equatorial this cycle.