Update: 3:20pm Eastern Time

Earthquake Condition Index B-. The last few days have been a nightmare to forecast. Spaceweather going to be strong or not? It was- will it continue, will the next shock be as surprising as these ones? Coronal hole going to stick around or not? (see below) We expected a heightened watch at the end of this week and until that coronal hole does or does not disappear I will hold off on updating that prediction. We had some more rumbles near the Caribbean today; they may be aftershocks or signs of more to come.

Solar Notes: We may have more storming in the wake of these CMEs, even as two more head this way (see below). The first could hit as early as tomorrow night, but likely will be Friday morning. I would definitely say that one would not normally expect geomagnetic storms from this level of an impact – there was clearly a good bit of south-pointing plasma to these shockwaves.