Update #4: 7:50pm Eastern Time

Notice a wild shift in the solar magnetic fields at the upper coronal level. The incoming coronal hole was totally blocked for a while today/tonight… but is re-opening now!

If the field stays open – Watch score is 7-8
If the field closes – Watch score is 5

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Update #3: 7:35pm Eastern Time

No sound – we’re just diagnosing the CME based on the first updated satellite.

You are watching the new, earth-driected CME on SDO/AIA211 – followed by the Stereo A Cor2, with earth off to the left. Other satellites and ENLILs are not updated, but my preliminary estimate is as follows:
75% Chance of Impact
50% Chance of Geomagnetic Storms
<1% Chance KP>6

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Update #2: 5:15pm Eastern Time
This update (#2) is not membership protected – please share it.

Close your eyes kids.

I know my ISON NASA debunk video made many people angry, but I’m pretty fuckin good at this and nobody watches the sun as much and as closely and with as much love as I do. The SDO perihelion show was real… what I just showed above is total complete bullshit and I’m pissed.

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Update #1: 3:50pm Eastern Time

Solar Eruption in progress – DEFINITIVELY Earth-facing. Diagnosis to come.

Earthquake Watch Score: 6-7, Stable. All factors present, but the coronal hole could be more powerful. Still expecting more quakes.

Evening News Video